There was a great blog post by 37Signals (actually several through the years) on the fallacy of forecasts and I have been happy to add my own two-cents to that concept in
previous posts. Just when we have convinced ourselves that our forecasts are based on the right assumptions and are the perfect blend of optimism and conservatism, then....reality happens and delivers numbers of her own.
If the business world put as much energy into early indication (actual data from real sources that would validate assumptions or establish trends) as we did into forecast exercises, I wonder if we'd immediately begin making better decisions? I suspect so.
There is a common phrase that is said (and I have certainly used hundreds of times myself) that upon reflection is a lie: "Great minds think alike." And its corrolary: "Fools seldom differ."
The truth is that great minds are composed of all sorts of different natural styles, curiousities, backgrounds, talents, and thought processes. This, of course, leads to wonderful innovation in so many parts of our lives and industries. If we all thought (verb) alike, then our thoughts (noun) would be too similar to generate anything new or inspirational.
However, it is human nature to rate ones' own abilities above average and then to seek like-minded (both in the verb and noun) individuals to associate with. This is never more evident than in the hiring process, where so often hiring managers hire people exactly like themselves, rather than hiring those who complement their skills or abilities and will challenge them to think in new ways. Diversity of thought is just as important (and certainly harder to judge from afar) than diversity of race, religion, or lifestyle. These people who think differently than ourselves, can cause us to be better business people, better strategist, better implementers, better managers, and possibly, better people.
This is a challenge for us all. We have to forget idioms (no matter how common they might be) and a little bit of our own tendencies, in order to benefit from great minds.
It is a frequent request from sales teams: create products that are more competitively priced or competitively featured. It sounds good and this kind of request has send product marketing and engineering teams off to create me-too products for centuries. The trouble is that is hardly ever works out as well as one would hope.
See, when you set out to make a competitive product, you have actually given up the one thing that might just be the key to your success: the ability to set the criteria for which products are judged and buying decisions are made. You have let your competition decide what is important and make you play catch up.
If you have the creativity and capability, it is much more fun (and probably more successful) to do something your competition isn't doing. Create a new product category. Solve a new problem in a new way. Sell to new customers in a new way. Go after a
Blue Ocean or a
Purple Cow, as the authors's suggest. Do something to set the pace and decide the rules of the game and then get your competition chasing you (or better yet, dismissing you as an outlier and you can be successful without them even noticing).
Okay, I confess, I don't know the secret of life. I have a suspicion that it has something to do with not seeking the secret (doing) and becoming a better person.
Something to think about as we ponder new year's resolutions here in a few weeks.
I read a great
blog post by Dan Pink on this topic and thought it would make a great cartoon. This might be a good one to print out and put by your computer or where decisions are made or priorities are set. Watch against activity that feels good and right, but doesn't clearly lead to results or value that your customers perceive.
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