Showing posts with label Decision Making. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Decision Making. Show all posts
Jennifer B. Davis

There was a great blog post by 37Signals (actually several through the years) on the fallacy of forecasts and I have been happy to add my own two-cents to that concept in previous posts. Just when we have convinced ourselves that our forecasts are based on the right assumptions and are the perfect blend of optimism and conservatism, then....reality happens and delivers numbers of her own.
If the business world put as much energy into early indication (actual data from real sources that would validate assumptions or establish trends) as we did into forecast exercises, I wonder if we'd immediately begin making better decisions? I suspect so.
Jennifer B. Davis

There is a common phrase that is said (and I have certainly used hundreds of times myself) that upon reflection is a lie: "Great minds think alike." And its corrolary: "Fools seldom differ."
The truth is that great minds are composed of all sorts of different natural styles, curiousities, backgrounds, talents, and thought processes. This, of course, leads to wonderful innovation in so many parts of our lives and industries. If we all thought (verb) alike, then our thoughts (noun) would be too similar to generate anything new or inspirational.
However, it is human nature to rate ones' own abilities above average and then to seek like-minded (both in the verb and noun) individuals to associate with. This is never more evident than in the hiring process, where so often hiring managers hire people exactly like themselves, rather than hiring those who complement their skills or abilities and will challenge them to think in new ways. Diversity of thought is just as important (and certainly harder to judge from afar) than diversity of race, religion, or lifestyle. These people who think differently than ourselves, can cause us to be better business people, better strategist, better implementers, better managers, and possibly, better people.
This is a challenge for us all. We have to forget idioms (no matter how common they might be) and a little bit of our own tendencies, in order to benefit from great minds.
Jennifer B. Davis
I read a great blog post by Dan Pink on this topic and thought it would make a great cartoon. This might be a good one to print out and put by your computer or where decisions are made or priorities are set. Watch against activity that feels good and right, but doesn't clearly lead to results or value that your customers perceive.
Jennifer B. Davis

What's the worst thing that could happen? It probably isn't as bad as you think (or as likely).
Jennifer B. Davis
Another phrase I have never really understood was "gung-ho attitude," but that didn't keep me from loving this line from one of my son's Star Wars, The Clone Wars books.

Jennifer B. Davis

Jennifer B. Davis
There is a spectrum of emotion that is said to rule the stock market that runs from fear to greed. With the recent events in the financial markets making headlines, I have been thinking about the factors of fear and greed and how they affect our individual or organizational risk tolerance. If you have assets and resources adequate but not extraneous, the fear of loss may keep you in conservative investments. If you have an excess of resources or are investing with money you are prepared to lose, you can be driven by greed.

In other contexts, I prefer to draw the risk tolerance curve below.

When you are contemplating a decision, do you have more to lose or more to gain? This, more than any other thing, will determine your boldness, your willingness to accept risk, and the lengths to which you will go to preserve the status quo.

I used to work in an intrapreneurial group at a huge, multinational corporation. Although by the corporate standards it was a "start-up," I recognized immediately the difference between this group and the actual start-ups I had worked with. This was no scrappy start-up. As a case in point, we had a full-time attorney, PR professional and agency, and trained marketers making sure we used the brand appropriately. The company knew that at even the most aggressive projections, the revenue and margin that would be brought by this new business was less than the value of its brand in the marketplace. Thus, there was more to lose than gain. Which is one of the reasons why, in my opinion, these initiatives were not successful under that corporate umbrella? Start-ups work when there is more to gain than lose.

I see this curve playing out in the discussions about the use of "social media" in corporate contexts. Some companies large and small are jumping in and now have Facebook fan pages, Twitter accounts, and active outreach by more than one "department" of the company. Other consumer brands are reluctant to jump in and lose control over the message, the brand, or the customer experience (all things that might be a false sense of control anyway). Tara Hunt's new book The Whuffie Factor outlines this well. When I met her last week at WebVisions, she said several times that her next book will be about the cultural change that is required to "do" social media and create social capital in the marketplace. I think she'll find that companies must create environments where they have more to gain than lose by their efforts to see the change take hold.

In fact, this even applies to personal motivation factors and change management. In Alan Webber's Rules of Thumb book, he says that there is a formula for predicting change: "Change happens when the cost of the status quo is greater than the risk of change." Said another way, change can happen when the risk of gain is more than the risk of loss.
Jennifer B. Davis

I am of the school of thought that the worst decisions tend to be the ones made slowly. If you wait until all the data is readily available to make a "risk free" decision that is painfully obvious to even the most casual observer, the window of opportunity and innovation has already closed. The smart ones already have started to act, learn, and are miles ahead of you before take the on-ramp.
Along this line, much has been written about iteration cycles and speed of decision making. Appparently there is a correlation between successful results and the number of decisions made (right or wrong). It goes to reason that if you make more decisions, you'll end up making more correct decisions and luck will fall your way.