Archeologists have just discovered a well preserved dinosaur remains which is calling into question many assumptions scientists have made about these ancient reptiles. Specifically, the specimen's vertebrae, which museums commonly stack together, are actually "spaced 10 millimeters apart. The result implies that scientists may have been underestimating the size of hadrosaurs and other dinos."It is strange to think that we might have been underestimating the size of something we assumed to be gargantuan. The dinosaurs in museums or the dinosaur models I used to visit as a kid, with their stacked together vertebrae, are terrifyingly tall. Can you imagine if they are bigger still?
It reminds me of many of the challenges in business strategy and forecasting. We make assumptions every day about the scope of some problem or the potential of some opportunity. We may assume it is big or minimal, but what if we are wrong. Not directionally wrong, but "order of magnitude" wrong. What if that customer satisfaction isn't just struggling, but is really horrible? What if the forecast isn't just a little soft, but seriously at risk? What if your employees are not just satisfied, but are referring their friends to new positions? What if what you know to be true isn't just true, but is understated?
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